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Wednesday, May 6, 2020
[ANT] New comment on Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that....
Erin Burnett has left a new comment on your post "Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that...":
Higher taxes, less spending
Still, it's a mystery when and if the bond market will eventually balk at high US debt and demand much higher interest rates.
"The breaking point is like an invisible dog fence," said MacGuineas, the president of CRFB. "You don't know where it is, but if you actually hit it, it'll be a huge problem."
To avoid hitting it, politicians will eventually have to make difficult decisions to get the United States back towards a sustainable fiscal path -- most likely less spending and higher taxes -- both of which would translate to slower economic growth.
"If we live beyond our means today," JPMorgan's Kelly said, "we will have to live within our means in the future."
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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:42 PM
Higher taxes, less spending
Still, it's a mystery when and if the bond market will eventually balk at high US debt and demand much higher interest rates.
"The breaking point is like an invisible dog fence," said MacGuineas, the president of CRFB. "You don't know where it is, but if you actually hit it, it'll be a huge problem."
To avoid hitting it, politicians will eventually have to make difficult decisions to get the United States back towards a sustainable fiscal path -- most likely less spending and higher taxes -- both of which would translate to slower economic growth.
"If we live beyond our means today," JPMorgan's Kelly said, "we will have to live within our means in the future."
Unsubscribe from comment emails for this blog.
Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:42 PM
[ANT] New comment on Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that....
Erin Burnett has left a new comment on your post "Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that...":
Rate hikes could set off a crisis
But that equation would change, of course, if rates rose sharply. Given the sheer magnitude of the debt, even a tiny increase in interest is costly. Interest payments were the fastest-growing expense for the federal government even before the crisis.
One risk is that a surprisingly strong rebound in the US economy forces the Fed to rapidly reverse course.
"If the economy comes back too hot, then you could have inflation, higher interest rates -- and that could lead to a fiscal crisis," said JPMorgan's Kelly.
That's exactly why some believe the Fed will be forced to keep rates at rock-bottom levels. "It will be that much harder this time to wean the economy off ultra-low rates because the debt is that much greater," said Invesco's Hooper.
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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:41 PM
Rate hikes could set off a crisis
But that equation would change, of course, if rates rose sharply. Given the sheer magnitude of the debt, even a tiny increase in interest is costly. Interest payments were the fastest-growing expense for the federal government even before the crisis.
One risk is that a surprisingly strong rebound in the US economy forces the Fed to rapidly reverse course.
"If the economy comes back too hot, then you could have inflation, higher interest rates -- and that could lead to a fiscal crisis," said JPMorgan's Kelly.
That's exactly why some believe the Fed will be forced to keep rates at rock-bottom levels. "It will be that much harder this time to wean the economy off ultra-low rates because the debt is that much greater," said Invesco's Hooper.
Unsubscribe from comment emails for this blog.
Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:41 PM
[ANT] New comment on Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that....
Erin Burnett has left a new comment on your post "Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that...":
Markets don't seem to mind, at least not yet
The good news is that Uncle Sam is having no trouble, at least so far, with financing the deficit. The 10-year Treasury rate is near all-time low at just 0.7%. That signals investors don't fear the US debt situation is even near a breaking point.
Markets aren't freaking out about US debt for a few reasons.
First, this spending is temporary and emergency in nature.
Second, the US dollar remains the preeminent international reserve currency and US Treasury market is the deepest and largest in the world. Those are huge advantages that keep demand strong for US debt.
Third, it's extremely cheap to borrow right now. The Fed slashed interest rates to near-zero --and economists think they may stay there into 2022.
"It doesn't blow us up -- because interest rates are so low," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:41 PM
Markets don't seem to mind, at least not yet
The good news is that Uncle Sam is having no trouble, at least so far, with financing the deficit. The 10-year Treasury rate is near all-time low at just 0.7%. That signals investors don't fear the US debt situation is even near a breaking point.
Markets aren't freaking out about US debt for a few reasons.
First, this spending is temporary and emergency in nature.
Second, the US dollar remains the preeminent international reserve currency and US Treasury market is the deepest and largest in the world. Those are huge advantages that keep demand strong for US debt.
Third, it's extremely cheap to borrow right now. The Fed slashed interest rates to near-zero --and economists think they may stay there into 2022.
"It doesn't blow us up -- because interest rates are so low," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
Unsubscribe from comment emails for this blog.
Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:41 PM
[ANT] New comment on Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that....
Erin Burnett has left a new comment on your post "Meghan McCain react to Pres. Trump specifying that...":
Powell: 'Not the time' to worry about debt
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, recently expressed regret about America's failure to get its debt situation under control years ago.
"It tells you the importance of getting your fiscal house in order," Powell said during a press conference last week. "Ideally, you would go into an unexpected shock like this with a much stronger fiscal posture."
Yet Powell urged politicians not to worry about that now. "This is not the time to let that concern, which is a very serious concern, get in the way of us winning this battle," he said.
Worries about debt forced the United States to rein in spending shortly after the Great Recession a decade ago. Economists say that premature withdrawal of stimulus hobbled the economy.
"The anemic recovery was a direct result of not enough fiscal stimulus," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
The national debt has been on an unsustainable path for decades, in large part because of high entitlement spending on Social Security and Medicare.
Before the pandemic, Moody's forecast US debt would hit 100% of GDP in 2030. Now, it expects debt to stand at 128% of GDP by then.
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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
Powell: 'Not the time' to worry about debt
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, recently expressed regret about America's failure to get its debt situation under control years ago.
"It tells you the importance of getting your fiscal house in order," Powell said during a press conference last week. "Ideally, you would go into an unexpected shock like this with a much stronger fiscal posture."
Yet Powell urged politicians not to worry about that now. "This is not the time to let that concern, which is a very serious concern, get in the way of us winning this battle," he said.
Worries about debt forced the United States to rein in spending shortly after the Great Recession a decade ago. Economists say that premature withdrawal of stimulus hobbled the economy.
"The anemic recovery was a direct result of not enough fiscal stimulus," said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.
The national debt has been on an unsustainable path for decades, in large part because of high entitlement spending on Social Security and Medicare.
Before the pandemic, Moody's forecast US debt would hit 100% of GDP in 2030. Now, it expects debt to stand at 128% of GDP by then.
Unsubscribe from comment emails for this blog.
Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
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